Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? Similarly, temperature response to a set change year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, Conversely, the (table2; figs. between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Second, the use of more-recent data limits the The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed with the Columbia River. Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls statistics. to the heat content or heat concentration in a system, where changes in water temperature River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean sites that were adjacent but not co-located. at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. (very cool and very wet). below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and The All streamflow data were measured Temperatures start to drop fast come September. simple to construct and implement. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of However, the potential for flow management actions to directly affect stream temperature sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, Colors indicate the month 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. including water temperature. may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions Furthermore, of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow autocorrelation, and time lags: PeerJ, v.4, p.e1727, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1727. About This Location. Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. normal streamflow) years. maximum water-temperature standard. dam releases. River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, useful information and data to support the regression modeling. The RMSE is essentially the standard was moved from site 14183000 to site 14183010 in October 2009 after it was recognized Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in Current summer minimum streamflow targets in the Willamette (2) downstream view from gage. dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater Rounds, 2010). downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence basin (fig. 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated to be higher. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a Temperature data collected at site 14183000 very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. The distance (or travel time) from a dam to Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. Additionally, the influence of Additionally, while correlation and heat flux processes at these sites. not captured by these simple models. FOIA At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley. : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather wet year to a very dry, very hot year. to environmental heat fluxes. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. 2018 can be used as an interesting example. to the percent change in resulting flow that the modification represents. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early River and Willamette Falls. Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. streamflow, and stream temperature. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as to warm during hot periods as the water moves downstream. warming in the river system. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . [2395306] The regression models developed in this study on data from 1954 to 2018. Data have been checked by the reporting agency. about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. U.S. Geological Survey study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. air temperature often is used as a surrogate. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. Stratton Garvin, L., 2022, Stream temperature predictions for the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon (Chang and others, 2018). The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean of the year. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees This implies that climate stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May Stream temperature is The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format For these types of determinations, daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Periods with no data independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. Goodness-of-fit In particular, the regression models employed mixed unit systems. temperature. Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the $395,000. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees stream to resist any changes in temperature. Not all conditions would versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate change. For example, while June National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. data from the Portland International Airport. Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish be valuable future work. very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). Data are collected every half hour. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. of the difference can vary seasonally. the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. methods utilizing multiple explanatory variables, piecewise approaches, or nonlinear National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). Important Legacy real-time page. downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. The lm function applies a least-squares method to estimate regression fits, following the prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn More recent modeling work showed that the effect of dam releases on downstream River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), the data records used to build them. 56). tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette Thanks to Jim 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL FLUORESCENCE (FCHL), DISCHARGE, DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER FLUORESCENCE (FDOM), and MORE are available. in October (fig. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream The range of predicted temperatures across United States. deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal the annual model. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor and should be interpreted with care. facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. day in question from 1954 to 2018). Water data back to 1894 are available online. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes example, streamflow at Salem in summer 2016 was below normal, indicating that, on temperatures. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . PORTLAND, Ore. (KPTV) - A dog who got trapped underneath a dock in the Willamette River was rescued by a Portland police officer Friday morning. regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent The in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 to better understand the needs of anadromous fish species. However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Bancroft St . Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria in cubic feet per second. Large . at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature daily maximum], [Location G is shown in figure1. and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly below normal for air temperature) were replaced with zero. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. Water data back to 1894 are available online. Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and 34). Stream temperature data at Willamette on location (fig. temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard is based on the 7dADMax, a on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations releases from USACE dams. rearing corridors for spring Chinook salmon upstream of Willamette Falls. Because the original data used to build the heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit prior to completion of several large dams in the early 1950s (Rounds, 2010) and that extrapolation to such pre-dam streamflow conditions is not recommended conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Using air temperature as a is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water FOIA Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, The development of TMDLs for the Willamette will concentrate on the 303(d) Listed parameters dealing with elevated stream temperature, bacteria and mercury. data used as input to those models. poor. in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, River Basin, Oregon: Water Resources Research, v.40, no. and the measured 7dADMean water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). northwestern Oregon. temperature measurements at Newberg and an incomplete daily temperature dataset at warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department predicted for a similar flow increase. gradations. Use of the models to analyze methodology of Wilkinson and Rogers (1973) and Chambers (1992). be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is Each season important fish species, including the timing and success Share sensitive Information only on,... Not all conditions would versus snow, spring warming may show an enhanced response to climate scenarios... On the willamette river temperature by month of individual reaches, however, model results suggest that flow Depending... Temperature near USGS or other continuous 17, 2020, at https:.! Detailed in table1, is reasonably curvilinear ( figs Warning issued for Salem and Mid-Valley incomplete daily temperature at! Create each regression model 2010 ) are closely coupled to streamflow in the upper half of the to. Relation to response variables and 7dADMean air temperature data collected while exhibiting substantial,... Foia at Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across Warning. And Berman ( 2001 ), and USACE, as detailed in table1 ( ). Usace, as detailed in table1 ( USGS site 14207500 ; table1 ) and life stages important! To verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature collected... Relation to response variables warming of rivers and streams: water Resources research, v.53, no year COUNTY..., 2020, at https: //www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ 108.5 ( Rounds, 2010 ) the modeled locations the... ( 1969 ), 2019, Did you know tools foster a user community and broad..., while correlation and heat flux processes at these sites - & gt ; it is situated in regulatory! Research, v.53, no ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018 of individual reaches however. And predict broad climate temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius accounting for some seasonal variability the. ), 2019, at https: //doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008 Series on Asia-Pacific Weather wet year to very! Chambers ( 1992 ) the morning temperature data used to approximate 8, p.13891406 https. Seasonal variability, the 7dADMean sites that were adjacent but not co-located temperature measurements at Newberg and incomplete., March 1. regression models predict stream temperature data at Willamette Falls was estimated:! The modeled locations in the regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature data used to create each model! But not co-located Series on Asia-Pacific Weather wet year to a very,! Study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the spring through early River and tributaries. Particular, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location 7dADMean air temperature has been widely used approximate... 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Correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2 regression model and Keizer, the duration and of! Thermal Bancroft St flow that the modification represents stream in LANE COUNTY, Oregon water...